> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://xiongxiaoer.gitbook.io/the-little-bitcoin-book/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://xiongxiaoer.gitbook.io/the-little-bitcoin-book/chang-qi-shi-jiao.md).

# 长期视角

在过去的十年中，比特币的价格从几分之一美分上升到近两万美元的高位。截至2019年8月的价格接近11000美元。

![ 从开始到现在的比特币价格（对数坐标）](/files/-Lxj-NUePXylRCNSn1FC)

比特币是稀缺的。如第2章所述，供应量被设定为2100万个币。

比特币的固定供应和透明的发行时间表对买家来说很有吸引力，因为替代品——法定货币——普遍会被稀释，从而导致通胀，这意味着同样多的钱每年只能买更少的东西。从长远来看，更多人可能会发现比特币具有吸引力，因为政府无法印更多的币或审查交易，因为它很难被没收。

挖出来的所有比特币的总价值仍然只有2000亿美元。相比之下，挖出来的所有黄金价值估计约为9万亿美元。比特币的市值很小，只有2％的黄金价值，因此对价格波动更敏感。每日交易量也相对较小：每天约100亿美元，而黄金为每天约3000亿美元。由于流动性（liquidity）——即在特定时期内可以方便地买卖的资产数量——较低，即使是小买家或卖家也会对价格产生很大影响。随着比特币接受度的增加以及比特币作为全球资产类别的增长，其波动性将会下降。这可能需要几十年的时间。


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